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Using palaeodata to reduce uncertainties in climate prediction

The IPCC estimates of climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 ranged from ~1.5 to 4.5C, a range that creates difficulty in defining and tackling "dangerous" climate change. The DEFRA-funded project QUMP (Quantifying Uncertainties in Model Prediction) investigated the effects of parametrization on sensitivity by running a series of simulations of the modern climate, systematically altering parameter values and comparing them with observations. QUMP found that the constraints supplied by recent observations of climate did not reduce uncertainties in prediction.

PalaeoQUMP aims to constrain climate sensitivity better, by using a wider range of derived climate observations from the geological past (reconstructions from sediments and geomorphological changes for the Last Glacial Maximum and the mid-Holocene period), to evaluate climate model predictions generated using the same series of simulations as QUMP produced for the modern climate.


Sandy P. Harrison (coordinator) sandy.harrison @bristol.ac.uk
Mat Collins (lead investigator at UKMO) matthew.collins @metoffice.gov.uk
James Murphy (recognised researcher) james.murphy @metoffice.gov.uk
Michel Crucifix (investigator) michel.crucifix @uclouvain.be
Mary Edwards (investigator) M.E.Edwards @soton.ac.uk
Jonty Rougier (investigator) J.C.Rougier @bristol.ac.uk
Tamsin Edwards (PDRA) tamsin.edwards @bristol.ac.uk
Ana María García Suárez (PDRA) Ana.Garcia-Suarez @bristol.ac.uk
Philip Brohan philip.brohan @metoffice.gov.uk

Former Members

Chris Hewitt chris.hewitt @metoffice.gov.uk
Michelle Felton (PDRA) Michelle.Felton @bristol.ac.uk
Heather Binney (PDRA) h.a.binney @soton.ac.uk